Explore the development path of China's mining industry under the new normal

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2018-06-12

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"Since 2014, the world economy has entered a stage of slow recovery.As a result, China's economic growth is slowing down. Although the mining industry is expected to stabilize and recover, the economic operation of some minerals is still grim."This is a summary of the current supply and demand situation of mineral resources and mineral products made by China mining association.In this new normal, where will China's mining industry go?

Analyze the mining situation calmly

In 2014, the overall situation of China's mining industry is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

The problem of supply exceeding demand in the coal market is prominent. Inventories have increased, prices have fallen, profits have fallen, and business pressure has increased.The output of nonferrous metal ore products decreased slightly year on year, with copper, copper and tin falling further year on year, zinc and nickel rebounding, and aluminum basically flat with the previous year.The output of tungsten concentrates was balanced, the export of tungsten products increased, the import of tungsten products decreased obviously, the market price fell, the economic benefits declined, and the enterprises were generally in difficulty.Iron ore production increased, and the price dropped by nearly 50%, the lowest in five years. Iron mining companies' profits fell, and 75% of their production capacity was in the red.With the increase of gold production, gold enterprises have maintained the dominant position for eight consecutive years. Under the pressure of multiple factors such as falling international gold price and rising costs, gold enterprises are facing challenges.Imports of major chemical minerals were basically flat compared with the previous year. Exports of major chemical minerals were still declining. Fixed investment increased.The economy of non-metallic minerals has been stable on the whole, with some progress in structural adjustment, but still facing downward pressure. The output of some minerals has increased, the performance of various minerals has been different, inventories have increased, product prices have maintained balance, and exports have increased.

In 2015, the world economy is still in a period of deep adjustment after the international financial crisis, and China's economy is evolving into a new normal stage.Based on various factors, China mining association analyzed the mining situation in 2015 under the "new normal" and predicted the market trend of major mineral products.

Oil and gas instability and uncertainty factors mainly have two: one is the sharp decline in the price of crude oil and violent oscillation.Under the influence of sluggish global economic growth, substantial increase in oil and gas supply in North America, and accelerated development and utilization of new energy sources, the world oil and gas supply and demand pattern is undergoing fundamental changes.This, combined with political or economic instability in traditional oil-producing regions such as the Middle East, Russia and venezuela, further increases the risk of wild swings in international crude prices.Second, due to the sluggish demand, the ex-factory prices of oil and gas products have decreased for the third consecutive year. It is expected that the market demand for oil and gas products will continue to be relatively insufficient in 2015, and the downward trend of the ex-factory prices of oil and gas products will continue.On the whole, China's market has plenty of room for maneuver and market risks are controllable, but the impact on corporate profits will continue and the vitality and power will be restrained to some extent.

Under the new normal, the coal industry will also enter a period of slowing demand growth, excess capacity and inventory digestion, increasing environmental constraints, and transformation of the growth model and structural adjustment.From the demand, in 2015, our country economic growth to slow further, countries continue to increase the intensity of atmospheric pollution control, control the total energy consumption, improve the non-fossil energy and the proportion of natural gas in primary energy consumption, reduce the coal consumption, will further adjust the energy structure optimization, may continue to reduce coal demand intensity.From the perspective of supply, on the one hand, the pressure from coal capacity is increasing; on the other hand, the global coal market has excess capacity, and coal imports will remain relatively large.In addition, the state has implemented various policies and measures to control the total supply of coal, which will continue to curb the blind growth of coal output.It is predicted that the supply and demand relationship in the domestic coal market will improve in 2015, but due to the influence of multiple factors, the situation of oversupply in the market is difficult to achieve fundamental change.The next step of coal enterprises operating difficulties will increase, the industry operation situation is still grim.

Nonferrous metals, from the price point of view, the United States, Europe and Japan and other major economies present a very different situation, the dollar will continue to be a strong trend, the price of nonferrous metals continues to pressure.It is expected that most non-ferrous metal prices will continue to show a downward trend of shock.Copper prices are likely to fall or wobble more on cost grounds than other commodities.In the current new normal of China's economy from high growth to medium-high growth, the change of growth mode and growth structure will have an impact on non-ferrous metal consumption.Meanwhile, given the large consumption base of non-ferrous metals, the growth rate of non-ferrous metals consumption is expected to continue to slow, and the global supply of non-ferrous metals will gradually turn from balance to easing.

Iron ore mining is mainly characterized by two features: first, the international iron ore giants expand production, high-cost ore withdrawal.High-cost miners have been squeezed out of the market by the world's biggest iron ore producers, which are ramping up production to maintain profits amid a sharp fall in iron ore prices.In 2015, the four major mines of Rio tinto group, BHP billiton group, vale of Brazil and formg group will still maintain strong iron ore resource development capacity.Their absolute monopoly position constructed by virtue of resource advantage is strengthened.On the contrary, the exploitation and utilization intensity of mining enterprises with low market competitiveness is weakened.Second, the development of iron ore resources in domestic mines has been weakened.The domestic market has continued to shrink, mining rates have fallen and construction projects have slowed as iron ore prices continue to plummet.In addition to the lower growth rate of investment, many large mine construction projects are also adjusting their construction plans, weakening the intensity of development and slowing down the progress.On the demand side, the world economy is in deep adjustment and the growth rate of global steel production is limited.From the perspective of supply, 2015 is still the rapid release period of production capacity of the world's four largest mining companies. Due to poor resource endowment, low operating efficiency and high production cost of domestic iron ore enterprises, a number of small and medium-sized mines will stop production and close down. Domestic mines will see a decline this year.The imbalance of iron ore supply and demand has not changed qualitatively, and the short-term market trend of supply exceeding demand continues to expand, and the price shows a trend of stabilizing in the process of falling.

In the major chemical and mineral industries, due to the high dependence of downstream products on export, the export tax rate of some chemical and mineral products was further reduced in 2014, which has achieved the goal of stimulating export.In the whole year of 2015, the output of main chemical mineral products phosphate ore and potash fertilizer still maintained growth, but the growth rate will slow down significantly.Pyrite production is flat.Due to favorable market factors, phosphate ore prices will slowly recover;The prices of pyrite and potassium chloride are subject to sulfur and foreign factors.Potassium sulfate price continues to be high, causing many enterprises to launch potassium sulfate projects, worthy of attention.

Enterprises are actively looking for a way out

Survival is the first priority

"Now that commodity prices are falling, it's just a destocking process."Wang renhu, general manager of xinjiang yuanshan mineral resources exploration co., LTD., believes that, like other industries, the mining industry has both high tide and low ebb, with periodicity.In a certain period, after the increase of prospecting and exploration, the quantity of mineral products developed will increase, which means the inventory of mineral products will increase.Now the prices of minerals are very low all over the world, which is also the phase of global destocking.Mining exploration is still in a low tide at present. For exploration enterprises, survival is the first priority. After the adjustment in 2013 and 2014, exploration projects in the mainland have been reduced, which has affected some geological teams in the mainland.By contrast, some state-owned exploration companies in the west have had a better time, thanks to increased state investment in the region in recent years.

In response to the current situation, wang renhu said the core content is to generate revenue and reduce fees, that is, increase profits, reduce costs.Reduce investment in all aspects, including reducing risk exploration funds, and reduce daily management costs. Help mining companies solve prospecting problems by improving technical level, realize prospecting breakthrough and create value, so as to better guarantee the normal operation of exploration work.

Yan hui, assistant general manager of sinoco potash co., LTD., told our reporter that the market needs mineral resources at any time, just how much is needed.The development of mineral resources may not be as spectacular as it was in the golden period of the past decade. Under the new normal, the mining industry needs to follow the road of fine mining and realize energy conservation and environmental protection.Resources do not increase, the remaining resources to fine operation, full development of its value.Enterprises can no longer continue extensive development, extensive development of low utilization rate of resources, should be more to deep processing, make full use of resources.Resources can bring profit is valuable, otherwise there is no profit, enterprises can not go far.On the other hand, environmental protection and reclamation after mining should also be considered. Otherwise, enterprises may not be able to go on because of environmental protection problems and even be closed down.

"Go out", first complement the short board

How does the mining industry develop under the new normal?Liang youming, President of the guangdong mining association, thinks that provinces and cities should choose their own development paths.With its rapid economic development, guangdong province is a big consumer of mineral resources, but it does not produce much of its own mineral resources. After closing all the small coal mines, it does not produce any coal now.Although there are many kinds of resources in guangdong, they are all small mines with large consumption and small output. From this point of view, the mining industry is in a serious situation.In view of the actual situation of mineral resources in guangdong province, liang youming believes that comprehensive utilization of resources should be improved and environmental protection should be done well while developing limited resources.At the same time, guangdong encourages its enterprises to exchange information with each other across the country, and even go abroad, especially under the national framework of One Belt And One Road, to seek high-quality mineral resources in the west, but at the same time pay attention to the risk of crime, especially the risk of investment abroad.

To invest abroad, it is necessary to know and be familiar with the laws and regulations of the country where the project is located, such as mining law (land law), labor law, environmental law, investment law, tax law, etc. Besides, attention should be paid to environmental protection.For example, the environmental protection legislation of African countries has been basically completed, and their standards and practices are basically consistent with those of western countries.While enforcement is not yet in place, irresponsible environmental destruction has rarely occurred.These have put forward higher requirements for the industry enterprises.

General manager of Beijing zhongguo drilling co., ltd. and zhijun said the following aspects should be paid attention to when carrying out drilling work abroad.The first is to cultivate international management and operation talents.The biggest weakness of Chinese enterprises' "going global" is not the obstacle of capital or market barriers, but the lack of qualified international talents.Second, it is necessary to apply international industrial practices, principles and methods of international best industrial practices, formulate management blocks and operating procedures that are in line with local conditions, and implement effective project management and field exploration operations.The third is to determine the ore-prospecting target quickly and efficiently, break the traditional stage of ore-prospecting, and use efficient and rapid ore-prospecting means to determine the ore-prospecting target and economy.In this regard, Beijing zhongguo drilling co., LTD., which has gone abroad, has accumulated rich experience.In recent years, many large mining companies at home and abroad have completed the drilling work, including newmont, mandero, ivanhoe, zhongjin gold, wanbao minerals, western mining and other large mining companies.

Trading, by the market

As early as in 2003, the state-owned assets supervision and administration commission released the interim measures for the transfer of state-owned property management for enterprises "(hereinafter referred to as the three order), established the system of enterprise of state-owned property rights transfer into the property rights trading market, launched the enterprise state-owned property rights transfer market, through an open, fair, justice, circulation enterprise state-owned property right, reduce the manipulation of state-owned property rights transfer.

"Under the new normal, mining rights trading patterns have changed accordingly.From the current situation, anti-corruption has become the norm, mining rights into the property market, open, fair, fair trade, this is an inevitable trend.Beijing international mining exchange (hereinafter referred to as the north ore) chairman Wu Ruchuan believes that the marketization of transfer of mining right, not only to prevent the low-cost transfer, manipulation, let say hello "leading" type of administrative intervention, this prevents the cadre corruption in mining right trade, to a certain extent, also protect the cadre, let the mining right trade bask in the sun.